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Posted by admin on February 12th, 2011 at 02:05pm

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Briefing.com Intraday Commentary
Moving the Market

Bullish bias prevails

Egypt President Mubarak resigns

Corporate news is limited, but Nokia (NOK) and Microsoft (MSFT) form a business partnership

Dollar advances against competing currencies

Consumer sentiment reading from Univ. of Michigan improves, but not quite as much as had been expected

Sector Watch

Strong:casinos and gaming; forest products; auto makers; motorcycle manufacturers; home furnishing; agricultural products; diversified banks; diversified financial services; personal products; real estate services

Weak:electronic equipment and instruments; building products; trucking

2/11/2011 4:30:00 PM ET DJ30 PointChange: +43.97 Level: 12273.26 NASDAQ PointChange: +18.99 Level: 2809.44 NQ100 PercentChange: +0.6 R2K PercentChange: +1.2 SP400 PercentChange: +1.0 SP500 PointChange: +7.28 Level: 1329.15 NASDAQ-Adv:1775 Dec: 841 NYSE-Adv:2233 Dec: 754

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks fought off moderate selling pressure in the early going to work their way toward new two-year highs. Buying was further bolstered by news that Egypt’s president gave into calls for his resignation.

A buy-the-dip response helped stocks rally from a sell-off in the prior session. A positive bias came through again this morning as stocks quickly overcame a lower open to push into positive territory. The move gained momentum as Egyptian President Mubarak finally submitted to demands for his resignation, although it is still unclear how order and leadership in the country will be restored.

While stocks showed a positive reaction to the news, oil prices were pushed to a 1.4% loss at $85.55 per barrel. Many believe Mubarak’s resignation will pacify protesters in Egypt and help mitigate risk of broader geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and near the Suez Canal.

The tumble in oil prices undermined interest in the energy sector, which fell to a fractional loss. Utilities (-0.2%) made up the only other sector that settled in the red.

Financials outperformed by a wide margin. The sector advanced 1.4% with help from bank stocks, which collectively climbed 1.8%, according to the KBW Bank Index.

Large-cap tech also showed leadership. That helped the Nasdaq close near its session high. Microsoft (MSFT 27.25, -0.25) was a laggard, however, following news that the company has formed a business partnership with Nokia (NOK 9.36, -1.52).

Corporate announcements also included in-line earnings from Dow component Kraft (KFT 30.66, -0.45) and an upside surprise from Chipotle (CMG 268.73, +12.10). Other earnings reports received less attention from broad market participants.

The dollar added to its prior session bounce today. In the process it set a three-week high against competing currencies. Although it finished shy of its session high, the greenback’s 0.2% gain helped to give the Dollar Index a 0.5% weekly gain.

Data had little sway with participants. The December trade deficit totaled $40.6 billion, which is essentially on par with the $40.4 billion deficit that had been estimated by economists who were surveyed by Briefing.com. However, the December deficit is greater than the $38.3 billion deficit reported for the prior month.

The preliminary consumer sentiment reading for February from the University of Michigan came in at 75.1, which isn’t quite as strong as the 75.5 that had been widely expected. However, it is stronger than the 74.2 that was registered for the prior month.

Advancing Sectors: Financial (+1.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.0%), Industrial (+0.7%), Telecom (+0.7%), Materials (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.5%), Tech (+0.3%), Health Care (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Energy
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.2%)

2/11/2011 3:30:00 PM ET DJ30 PointChange: +47.00 Level: 12276.29 NASDAQ PointChange: +17.13 Level: 2807.58 SP500 PointChange: +7.86 Level: 1329.73 NASDAQ-Adv:1746 Dec: 865 NYSE-Adv:2187 Dec: 789

[BRIEFING.COM] Sellers put the pressure on commodities this afternoon. Their efforts led the CRB Commodity Index to a 0.6% loss.

Oil prices were a particularly heavy drag on the commodities space. The energy component settled with a 1.4% loss at $85.55 per barrel. Its push lower primarily came in response to news that Mubarak has resigned his position as the country’s president, an event that many believe will pacify protesters in Egypt and help mitigate against the risk of broader geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and near the Suez Canal.

Natural gas prices were hit even harder. Futures contract prices fell 1.9% to $3.91 per MMbtu.

Precious metals failed to go unscathed, even though the dollar handed back some of its gain in afternoon trade. Gold prices finished with a 0.4% loss at $1357.20 per ounce while silver prices settled 0.1% lower at $30.50 per ounce.

2/11/2011 3:00:00 PM ET DJ30 PointChange: +46.74 Level: 12276.03 NASDAQ PointChange: +18.02 Level: 2808.47 SP500 PointChange: +7.74 Level: 1329.61 NASDAQ-Adv:1740 Dec: 863 NYSE-Adv:2154 Dec: 821
[BRIEFING.COM] The dollar has been drifting lower all afternoon, but it is still in positive territory with a 0.2% gain. It had been up almost 0.6% at its session high. The drift has come as both the euro and British pound pare losses against the greenback; both currencies are down 0.5% at $1.354 and $1.602, respectively. Meanwhile, the yen is down 0.3% at 83.50 yen per dollar.

2/11/2011 2:30:00 PM ET DJ30 PointChange: +38.90 Level: 12268.19 NASDAQ PointChange: +17.06 Level: 2807.51 SP500 PointChange: +6.80 Level: 1328.67 NASDAQ-Adv:1648 Dec: 929 NYSE-Adv:2058 Dec: 877

[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq has gradually added to its gain so that it trades at its best level of the day with a solid gain. Neither the Dow nor the S&P 500 has cleared the highs that they set in the moments that immediately followed news of the resignation of Mubarak as President of Egypt.

Financials have been a strong source of broader market support. The sector is now up 1.5% as banks make a big bounce. As a group, banks are up 2.1% to a near nine-month high, according to the KBW Bank Index.

2/11/2011 2:00:00 PM ET DJ30 PointChange: +34.51 Level: 12263.80 NASDAQ PointChange: +15.65 Level: 2806.10 SP500 PointChange: +6.15 Level: 1328.10 NASDAQ-Adv:1633 Dec: 936 NYSE-Adv:2011 Dec: 911

[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq has stretched to a fresh session high, which also makes for a new two-year high. Its move this session has been led by the likes of Apple (AAPL 357.40, +2.86) and Google (GOOG 623.77, +7.33).

In contrast, Nasdaq member Microsoft (MSFT 27.27, -0.23) is under stiff pressure. Investors have shown a negative response to news that the company has formed a business partnership with Nokia (NOK 9.19, -1.69).

2/11/2011 1:30:00 PM ET DJ30 PointChange: +22.39 Level: 12252.68 NASDAQ PointChange: +13.15 Level: 2803.60 SP500 PointChange: +4.79 Level: 1326.66 NASDAQ-Adv:1629 Dec: 902 NYSE-Adv:2034 Dec: 891

[BRIEFING.COM] Despite the events of the past 24 hours and the uncertainty regarding the assumption of leadership and restoration of order in Egypt, the Volatility Index is down almost 2% at the moment.

Share volume has picked up since this morning. The pace of trade had been rather slow in the early going, but the acceleration of action has put total share volume on the NYSE at more than a half billion. Assuming that the current pace of trade continues, total share volume on the Big Board should surpass 1 billion today. Yesterday was the first time in seven sessions that share volume on the NYSE exceeded 1 billion.

2/11/2011 1:15:00 PM ET DJ30 PointChange: +24.98 Level: 12254.27 NASDAQ PointChange: +12.80 Level: 2803.25 SP500 PointChange: +5.15 Level: 1327.02 NASDAQ-Adv:1536 Dec: 990 NYSE-Adv:1910 Dec: 995

[BRIEFING.COM] The major equity averages opened lower, but for the second straight session participants made a buy-the-dip response. Buying interest increased with news that Egypt’s president has given into calls for his resignation.

Stocks rallied from sizable losses in the prior session, but experienced some volitility in its final few minutes as participants considered the implications of a refusal to resign by Egyptian President Mubarak in the face of widely publicized protests. Concerns about the potential for geopolitical tension caused volatility to continue overnight and stimulated some renewed selling interest.

However, buyers were quick to step in and provide support. Although the preliminary consumer sentiment survey for February wasn’t quite as strong as what had been expected, stocks extended their morning climb in the wake of its release. The upturn accelerated with news that Mubarak finally gave into calls for his resignation, even though it is still unclear how order and leadership in the country will be restored.

News of Mubarak’s resignation has triggered selling against oil, which is now down 1.3% to $85.60 per barrel. That slide has caused energy stocks to retreat. Energy stocks are now down 0.2% while broader market action remains rather positive.

The drop in oil prices has helped stoke buying in airline stocks. That has the Amex Airline Index up 2.1%.

2/11/2011 12:30:00 PM ET DJ30 PointChange: +8.55 Level: 12237.84 NASDAQ PointChange: +8.17 Level: 2798.62 SP500 PointChange: +3.11 Level: 1324.98 NASDAQ-Adv:1478 Dec: 1027 NYSE-Adv:1842 Dec: 1048

[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow has drifted back to the neutral line, but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to trade with modest gains.

Energy stocks have moved deeper into negative territory. The sector is now down 0.4%. Utilities, down 0.1%, make up the only other major sector in the red. In contrast, financials are still up markedly with a 0.9% gain.

Oil prices have fallen to fresh session lows. The commodity is now down 1.5% to $85.40 per barrel.

2/11/2011 12:00:00 PM ET DJ30 PointChange: +13.47 Level: 12242.54 NASDAQ PointChange: +9.29 Level: 2799.74 SP500 PointChange: +3.76 Level: 1325.63 NASDAQ-Adv:1425 Dec: 1063 NYSE-Adv:1874 Dec: 981

[BRIEFING.COM] Energy stocks have retreated to a 0.2% loss. Their reversal coincides with a downturin in oil prices, which are now off by 1.0% at $85.85 per barrel, in the wake of news that Mubarak has resigned from his position as President of Egypt. Though Mubarak’s resignation comes to the delight of Egypt’s protesters, pundits point out that it is unclear whether the people of Egypt will be satisfied with steps taken to restore order and leadership in the country.

While the pullback in oil prices appears to have hurt energy stocks, it has helped propel shares of airline stocks. In turn, the Amex Airline Index is up 1.9%. Airline shares have underperformed this year; they are down 1.7% year to date while the broader market is up 5.4% this year. However, the Amex Airline Index surged 39% in 2010, just as it did in 2009. The S&P 500 advanced almost 13% in 2010, after it climbed more than 23% in 2009.

2/11/2011 11:30:00 AM ET DJ30 PointChange: +25.09 Level: 12254.38 NASDAQ PointChange: +8.05 Level: 2798.50 SP500 PointChange: +4.83 Level: 1326.70 NASDAQ-Adv:1331 Dec: 1132 NYSE-Adv:1848 Dec: 972

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks recently pulled back a bit from session highs after news of the resignation of Egypt’s President Mubarak was digested. They have since regrouped to reclaim gains.

Financials have emerged as a leader in recent trade; the sector is up 1.1%, which is more than double the gain of any other sector. Financials are currently led by regional banks like SunTrust (STI 32.72, +1.13) and Regions Financial (RF 8.07, +0.34). Collectively, regional banks are up 2.2%, which puts the group back near nine-month highs. Regional banks are up 2.6% week to date.

2/11/2011 11:05:00 AM ET DJ30 PointChange: +20.74 Level: 12250.03 NASDAQ PointChange: +5.92 Level: 2796.37 SP500 PointChange: +3.46 Level: 1325.33 NASDAQ-Adv:1096 Dec: 1313 NYSE-Adv:1525 Dec: 1268

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks have extended their morning push into positive territory. The vertical move has accelerated with news that Egypt’s President Mubarak has resigned.

News of Mubarak’s resignation has caused oil prices to pull back so that crude prices trade with a loss of more than 1% at about $85.65 per barrel.

2/11/2011 10:30:00 AM ET DJ30 PointChange: -6.13 Level: 12223.16 NASDAQ PointChange: -2.38 Level: 2788.07 SP500 PointChange: -0.81 Level: 1321.06 NASDAQ-Adv:1011 Dec: 1284 NYSE-Adv:1325 Dec: 1382
[BRIEFING.COM] Given the strength in the Dollar Index this morning, most commodities in the CRB Commodity Index are trading lower. The worst performers, as a group, are the livestock and soft commodities. Individually, nickel is the worst performer, showing 1.8% in losses.

Cotton futures hit new all-time highs at $1.9455/lb earlier this morning, which comes after rising for five consecutive session, primarily on strong China imports. From last week, the commodity is just over 15% higher, while currently, cotton is 2.7% higher at $1.9268/lb,

Energy markets are mixed with RBOB Gasoline and heating oil higher, crude just and April natural gas 1.2% lower. March crude oil fell into negative territory around 9:00am ET and hit session lows of $85.90 per barrel an hour ago. It’s currently just under the unchanged line at $86.61 per barrel

Precious metals are modestly higher with April gold 0.3% higher at $1367.50 per ounce and March silver 0.3% higher at $30.19 per ounce.

2/11/2011 10:00:00 AM ET DJ30 PointChange: -13.70 Level: 12215.59 NASDAQ PointChange: -2.40 Level: 2788.05 SP500 PointChange: -1.87 Level: 1320.00 NASDAQ-Adv:846 Dec: 1344 NYSE-Adv:1085 Dec: 1552

[BRIEFING.COM] The preliminary consumer sentiment reading for February from the University of Michigan was released a few minutes ago. It came in at 75.1, which isn’t quite as strong as the 75.5 that had been expected, on average, among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. However, it is stronger than the 74.2 that was registered for the prior month.

Since the report’s release, stocks have pushed higher. The upturn has yet to take any of the major sectors into positive territory, though.

Treasuries and the dollar are little changed from earlier levels.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Health Care (-0.3%), Energy (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.2%), Utilities (-0.2%), Tech (-0.1%), Financial (-0.1%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.1%), Industrials (-0.1%), Materials (-0.1%), Telecom (-0.1%)

2/11/2011 9:45:00 AM ET DJ30 PointChange: -38.75 Level: 12190.54 NASDAQ PointChange: -11.61 Level: 2778.84 SP500 PointChange: -5.53 Level: 1316.34 NASDAQ-Adv:606 Dec: 1433 NYSE-Adv:667 Dec: 1697

[BRIEFING.COM] The broad market is down with a modest loss in the first few minutes of trade. Weakness, though not severe, is widespread in that all 10 major sectors of the S&P 500 are in the red. Their losses are all of similar size.

Treasuries have benefited from a solid bid amid the stock market’s early slip. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently up a dozen ticks so that its yield is just below 3.65%.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to hold a lead over competing currencies. That has the Dollar Index up 0.4%.

2/11/2011 9:15:00 AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.80. The S&P 500 is up 0.8% this week, but stock futures suggest that some pressure may percolating in this morning’s premarket trade. Stock futures worked their way lower in overnight trade as support for stocks waned amid worries about the possibility of geopolitical unrest following the refusal of Mubarak to immediately resign from his position as Egypt’s President. Mixed action among overseas markets has also left buyers uninspired, as has the latest round of corporate news. Domestic data has been limited to a generally in-line December trade deficit of $40.6 billion. Still to come is the preliminary February reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. It is scheduld for release at 9:55 AM ET.

2/11/2011 9:05:00 AM ET

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. Domestic stock futures continue to trail fair value, but remain comfortably above session lows. As for action abroad, Germany’s DAX is presently down 0.1%, but on pace for a 1.6% weekly gain. Strength in automakers BMW and Daimler (DAI) has been offset by weakness in Thyssenkrupp and Commerzbank. According to data, Germany’s final CPI reading for January showed a 0.4% decline after it had increased 1.0% in the prior month. France’s CAC is currently off by 0.5% as its declining issues outnumber its advancers by 2-to-1. It is still up 0.7% for the week, though. L’Oreal, Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), and Axa (AXA) have had the heaviest drag on trade. Total (TOT) is also a source of weakness following generally in-line fourth quarter net income. Michelin and Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) have offered some support to broad trade, though. Britain’s FTSE is fractionally lower, but on pace for a 0.3% weekly gain. Banking issues HSBC (HBC) and Barclays (BCS) have countered strength in AngloAmerican and BG Group. According to the latest data, PPI for the United Kingdom increased by 1.7% in January after a 3.4% spike in December.

As for overnight action in Asia, mainland China’s Shanghai Composite put together a 0.3% gain, which helped it finish its holiday-shortened week 1.0% higher. It was led higher by consumer discretionary stocks (+1.1%) and health care plays (+1.0%). Industrial & Commercial Bank, Sany Heavy Industry, and China Railway were individual leaders. PetroChina (PTR), China Petroleum (SNP), and China United were laggards. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced for a 0.5% gain after it had logged losses in each of the previous four sessions. That left it with a 4.5% weekly loss. Nonetheless, Tencent Holdings, CNOOC (CEO), and Hutchison Whampoa were leaders in the Hang Seng’s final session before the weekend. SBC, China Mobile, and China Life Insurance were weak, though. Japan’s Nikkei was closed for Friday trade. It finished its week with a 0.6% gain.

2/11/2011 8:35:00 AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00. Neither stock futures, Treasuries, nor the dollar have shown any real reaction to the latest data on the U.S. trade balance. That’s primarily because there weren’t any surprises. The December trade deficit totaled $40.6 billion, which is essentially on par with the $40.4 billion deficit that had been estimated by economists who were surveyed by Briefing.com. However, the December deficit is greater than the $38.3 billion deficit reported for the prior month.

2/11/2011 8:05:00 AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.30. Stocks rallied impressively from an early sell-off to finish the prior session mixed, but the bullish bias that came through in yesterday’s action has waned in overnight trade. In turn, stock futures portend a modestly lower start to the week’s final session. The softened tone of premarket trade comes amid varied losses in Europe following narrow gains among Asia’s major averages. The greenback has attracted further support, such that the Dollar Index is up 0.4% to a three-week high. Most of that move has come against the euro, which is down 0.5% to $1.353. The British pound has also come under increased pressure in recent trade; it is down 0.6% to $1.600 following a report that indicated United Kingdom producer prices for January increased 1.7% after a 3.4% increase in December. The latest round of corporate news features a business partnership between Nokia (NOK) and Microsoft (MSFT). That announcement has pressured shares of NOK, but bolstered MSFT ahead of the open. Dow component Kraft (KFT) reported in-line earnings for its latest quarter, but its shares are down markedly this morning. Shares of Chipotle (CMG) are up, but off of overnight highs following better-than-expected earnings. Today’s economic calendar features the December trade balance (8:30 AM ET) and the preliminary February reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan (9:55 AM ET).

2/11/2011 7:19:16 AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50.

2/11/2011 7:19:12 AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] FTSE…6003.18…-16.80…-0.30%. DAX…7325.10…-15.30…-0.20%.

2/11/2011 7:19:12 AM ET
[BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei…Holiday……… Hang Seng…22828.92…+120.30…+0.50%.

2/10/2011 4:35:00 PM ET DJ30 PointChange: -10.60 Level: 12229.29 NASDAQ PointChange: +1.38 Level: 2790.45 NQ100 PercentChange: +0.1 R2K PercentChange: +0.4 SP400 PercentChange: +0.6 SP500 PointChange: +0.99 Level: 1321.87 NASDAQ-Adv:1347 Dec: 1244 NYSE-Adv:1570 Dec: 1390

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks were hit hard at the open by sellers who were focused on disappointing guidance from Cisco and Akamai Tech, rather than a better-than-expected initial jobless claims report, but the major averages rallied when it became clear that buyers remain in control.

This morning’s sell-off was a broad based affair, but it didn’t last much more than half an hour. Once stocks stabilized, a buy-the-dip mentality became apparent as participants pushed back in for fear of missing out on further gains. Overall share volume was not completely impressive — it did break above 1 billion shares on the NYSE for the first time in seven sessions — but watching the tape today left little doubt that bullish participants continue to call the shots.

Even though the broader market rallied, sellers barely let up on Cisco (CSCO 18.92, -3.12) and Akamai (AKAM 40.75, -7.24). The 15% loss suffered by AKAM was its worst single-session slide in more than a year and left shares at a six-month low. As for CSCO, its 14% drop was its worst in three months and caused shares to set a new 52-week low. Weakness in CSCO proved a principal cause in the Dow’s failure to find higher ground, ultimately snapping its eight-session streak of gains.

The rest of the earnings picture was rather mixed as Molson Coors (TAP 45.48, -2.09) and Sprint Nextel (S 4.60, +0.25) both missed the consensus earnings estimate, but PepsiCo (PEP 63.36, -1.06), MetLife (MET 47.27, -0.33) and Prudential (PRU 65.00, +1.87) posted upside surprises. Whole Foods (WFMI 60.05, +6.30) surged after it complemented an upside earnings estimate with increased guidance.

There was some volatility to late trade. Stocks seemed to gyrate with every word of Egypt’s President Mubarak, who indicated in a speech that he will not leave office until September, despite calls from his citizens for him to step down immediately. Mubarak’s refusal in the face of protests carries potential for geopolitical upset.

Participants got their first dose of data in a few days with the release of initial jobless claims for the week ended January 29. Initial claims totaled 383,000, which is less than Briefing.com consensus of 410,000 and only the second time since July 2008 that initial claims came in below 400,000.

Wholesale inventories for December increased 1.0%, but that news was of little concern to participants. News that the Treasury Budget for January featured a smaller-than-expected $49.8 billion deficit was also shrugged off.

Treasuries resumed their descent this session, but the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note remains below 3.70% after its rally in the prior session. Results from today’s 30-year Bond auction proved less inspiring. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.51, dollar demand of $40.2 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 43.1%.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.9%), Telecom (+0.5%), Industrial (+0.4%), Materials (+0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%), Health Care (+0.1%), Utilities (+0.1%)
Unchanged: Financial
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples (-0.5%), Tech (-0.5%)

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